The New Zealand Institute of Financial Analysis (NZIER) runs a ‘shadow board’ of analysts. The Shadow Board is unbiased of the RBNZ and doesn’t characterize what the RBNZ goes to do however fairly what their view is that the RBNZ ought to do. That’s, the Shadows don’t preview what they assume will occur, however what they assume ought to occur.
From their report, in short:
- The NZIER Shadow Board is split over whether or not the Reserve Financial institution of New Zealand (RBNZ) ought to lower the Official Money Price (OCR) within the upcoming August Financial Coverage Assertion.
- Over half of the Shadow Board members seen {that a} 25 basis-point lower within the OCR is required now, given the continued slowing within the New Zealand economic system and the labour market, and annual CPI inflation is nearing the 1 to three p.c inflation goal band.
- The remainder of the members advisable the Reserve Financial institution preserve the OCR at 5.50 p.c.
- One member thought-about that there’s nonetheless not sufficient proof from the financial information indicators to justify a reduce within the OCR now.
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Earlier preview:
- RBNZ monetary policy meeting – Reuters poll is not clear cut, 19 say hold, 12 say 25bp cut
- ANZ forecast the RBNZ to remain on hold next week, signal a rate cut later in the year
- NZD traders – Westpac forecasts the RBNZ to cut by 25bps in October and November 2024
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The Reserve Financial institution of New Zealand announce their resolution at 2pm New Zealand time on Wednesday 14 August
- which is 0200 GMT
- and 2200 US Jap time on Tuesday
This text was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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