AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: Fed’s 2025 Outlook Sparks Greenback

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: Fed’s 2025 Outlook Sparks Greenback
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  • Enterprise exercise within the US rose, supported by the service sector.
  • The financial system expanded by 3.1% within the fourth quarter.
  • The Fed minimize charges however projected solely 50 bps of cuts in 2025.

The AUD/USD weekly forecast suggests renewed downward strain because the greenback rallies on the outlook of fewer Fed price cuts in 2025.

Ups and downs of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair had a bearish week because the greenback soared on upbeat financial information and a drop in Fed price minimize bets. Information in the course of the week revealed that enterprise exercise within the US rose, supported by the service sector. On the identical time, retail gross sales jumped greater than anticipated in November. In the meantime, the financial system expanded by 3.1% within the fourth quarter in comparison with forecasts of two.8%. 

Nevertheless, the first catalyst got here when the Fed minimize charges however projected solely 50 bps of cuts in 2025. This boosted the dollar and sunk the Aussie.

Subsequent week’s key occasions for AUD/USD

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: Fed’s 2025 Outlook Sparks Greenback

The following necessary week will are available 2025 when the US will launch its first main report on month-to-month employment. On the identical time, traders will give attention to the FOMC assembly minutes.

The US nonfarm payroll report for December will present the state of the labor market going into the brand new 12 months. A strong report will assist the Fed’s new outlook for a gradual easing tempo in 2025. However, a downbeat report will present cracks within the labor market, rising Fed price minimize expectations.

In the meantime, the FOMC minutes will present what went into the December assembly. Furthermore, it would comprise clues in regards to the future. 

AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears put together to breach the 0.6202 assist

AUD/USD weekly technical forecastAUD/USD weekly technical forecast
AUD/USD every day chart

On the technical aspect, the AUD/USD worth has made a brand new low close to the 0.6202 assist stage. This transfer has pushed the worth nicely under the 22-SMA, an indication that bears have a robust lead. On the identical time, the RSI trades within the oversold area, displaying strong bearish momentum. 

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After a corrective bullish transfer, bears took management by breaking under the 22-SMA and the 0.6675 stage to make a decrease low. Since then, the worth has maintained a downward trajectory, making decrease lows. The RSI has additionally maintained its place in bearish territory. Furthermore, it has not made a bullish divergence, indicating that bears are nonetheless obsessed with decrease costs. Due to this fact, the worth will doubtless breach the 0.6202 assist within the new 12 months to make new lows.

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