AUD/USD every day chart
The greenback battled in month-end buying and selling final week and that stored a lid on AUD/USD, with sellers additionally holding on the July excessive across the determine stage. The important thing stage there’ll stay a spotlight this week, particularly with the greenback aspect of the equation set to return underneath heavy scrutiny.
It is all about jobs-related knowledge within the US for broader markets to start out September buying and selling. And never solely will that that closely affect greenback sentiment, but in addition threat sentiment this week.
There’s not a lot in it immediately with the dollar buying and selling extra combined. USD/JPY is up 0.4% to 146.70 however AUD/USD is up 0.3% to 0.6781 at present. The latter remains to be buying and selling inside a 30 pips vary, so I would not be calling for a critical take a look at of 0.6800 simply but.
Patrons will want some type of set off to essentially get going, particularly after being checked again final week.
As issues stand, the important thing driver of the transfer greater in AUD/USD remains to be a case of a divergence between the RBA and Fed.
Final week, we bought extra cussed inflation knowledge from Australia here. Nevertheless, that wasn’t fairly sufficient to seal a breakout for patrons. It might be month-end or it could be sellers leaning on a key technical stage and holding. However the truth is worth motion remains to be not signaling a break simply but.
And that brings us to this week now. The main target turns in direction of labour market knowledge from the US. Merchants are pricing in ~29% odds of a 50 bps charge minimize later this month by the Fed. And for the remaining three conferences this 12 months, there’s ~98 bps of charge cuts priced in.
Are we going to see extra shaky knowledge that can compel merchants to attempt to drive the Fed’s hand? Or is all of it a hiccup and we will must run that again a little bit within the weeks forward?
That might be key in figuring out what comes subsequent for AUD/USD as nicely. It has been a pleasant trip up for the reason that double-bottom in early August. Now, we’re at a important juncture and I would not be taking any bets till we get extra readability from US knowledge at this stage.
